CONSULTANT FOR VERIFICATION OF DZUD TRIGGERS AND DEVELOPMENT OF FLOOD EARLY ACTIONS The Mongolian Red Cross Society (MRCS) is seeking a qualified consultant or team to support the organization in developing triggers for flood early actions and verifying triggers for dzud early actions. This consultancy will assist MRCS in enhancing its capacity for anticipatory action against these key natural hazards. ORGANIZATIONAL CONTEXT Founded in 1939, MRCS is Mongolia's largest humanitarian organization, with 33 mid-level and over 800 primary-level branches nationwide. The organization plays a vital role in disaster risk reduction, public health promotion, social protection, and youth engagement. Since 2019, MRCS has been piloting anticipatory actions (AA) for dzud—severe winter conditions affecting the livelihoods of Mongolian herders. In collaboration with the International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies (IFRC) and the Red Cross Red Crescent Climate Centre, MRCS developed an Early Action Protocol (EAP), facilitating early funding to support herders in high-risk areas. MRCS now seeks to improve and scale up these efforts, particularly by revising dzud triggers and developing similar triggers for flood early actions in Mongolia. PURPOSE AND OBJECTIVES: The purpose of this consultancy is to support the Mongolian Red Cross Society (MRCS) and its partners defining a trigger methodology for the implementation of Floods early actions as well as verification and revision of the trigger methodology for the implementation of Cold Wave (Dzud) early actions. The consultancy will also provide basic training (1-2 days) on meteorological concepts, terminologies, and products in relation to the key hazards in Mongolia. The main objectives of this consultancy are: - Provide a historical overview of Floods and Dzuds in Mongolia and their main recorded impacts on people. - Recommend a methodology for predicting the impact(s) of Dzud in Mongolia taking in account the Dzud risk mapping methodology and products developed by National Agency for Meteorology and Environmental monitoring (NAMEM). - Recommend a methodology for predicting the impact(s) of Floods in Mongolia considering the data and analysis provided by NAMEM. - Inform on the various hydrometeorological parameters and forecasts (temperature and humidity) and heat indices that can be accessed and used for the triggering of early actions for floods. - Inform on the various hydrometeorological and vegetation parameters and forecasts (vegetation spread, vegetation length, temperature and humidity) and cold/heat indices that can be accessed and used for the triggering of early actions for Dzuds and floods. - Provide an analysis of available meteorological and impact information (from NAMEM, National Emergency Management Agency-NEMA, and other sources) including the indices, the parameters, the forecasts proposed, and the impact data, especially for a 1 in 5 year's event (for example, the 2010 Dzud and 2024 Dzud and 2023 Floods in Ulaanbaatar). - Provide information, reflections and analysis in response to the feedback on Dzud EAP provided by the EAP validation committee of the Red Cross Red Crescent Movement. - Confirm the feasibility of triggering Floods early actions in Mongolia, and the development of both a Flood simplified EAP including marking the areas that most at risk for floods in Mongolia. - Provide technical inputs in the exchanges between MRCS and its RCRC (Red Cross Red Crescent) Partners; United Nations (UN) Agencies involved in anticipatory action (such as UNFAO) as well as International NGOs (Non-Government Organizations) (such as World Vision), for knowledge sharing, promoting MRCS’ Anticipatory action (AA) efforts and facilitating potential synergies with other initiatives. KEY DELIVERABLES The following deliverables are expected from the consultant: 1. Inception Report: A short report (maximum 6 pages) covering the research design and highlighting key elements of the study. 2. Results Submission: Submission of results to MRCS and partners towards the end of the consultancy. 3. Final Report: A comprehensive report (maximum 30 pages; divided into two parts: one for Dzud and one for floods, with relevant annexes) incorporating feedback received during the submission process. The report should include: - Executive Summary - Research Design and Methodology: Description of the research design and methodology applied, including limitations. - Findings Presentation: Detailed presentation of findings with supporting graphs and figures for the development of floods and Dzud’s Early Actions triggers. - Event Overview: Descriptive overview of main floods and Dzud events and their recorded impacts. - Predictive Methodology Analysis: Detailed analysis of methodologies applicable for predicting floods and heatwaves impact in the country. - Parameters and Forecasts Analysis: Detailed analysis of the parameters, indices, and forecasts that can be accessed and used. - Skills/Accuracy Analysis: Analysis of the accuracy of parameters, indices, and forecasts. - Recommendations: Recommendations for the next steps towards developing an Early Action Protocol (EAP). TIMELINE The study is expected to be completed over a period of 3 months (2 weeks/month) according to the tentative schedule below: - Sep -Oct • Familiarization with Early Action Protocol (EAP) and Anticipatory Action (AA) concept. • Inception report. • Presentation of study design and methodology. • Data gathering and analysis for Dzud triggers and flood triggers. • Preparation of initial report findings. COORDINATION WITH MRCS AND PARTNERS 1. MRCS staff, including project staff under the AA project, will provide the consultants with all necessary data available at MRCS or from partners. 2. MRCS project staff will provide comments and validation on the inception report and the final report. 3. IFRC and other relevant field staffs will be available for online calls to provide additional technical support on the inception and final reports, as needed. BUDGET The total budget shall cover all costs incurred by the consultant related to the study. The consultant is expected to manage the number of days spent as proposed and planned. REQUIRED QUALIFICATIONS 1. Professional Background: - Relevant University Degree in a related field of study (Research, Climatology, Hydrometeorology, Agriculture). - Proven knowledge, expertise, and experience in formulating quantitative data research. 2. Work, Knowledge, and Experience: - Strong academic and/or work background in development research, preferably in areas affected by natural hazards and human-induced disasters. - Capacity for technical report both spoken and written in both English and Mongolian, good analytical skills, and experience working in partnership with government and other partners. - Extensive experience in the Mongolian context. APPLICATION INSTRUCTIONS The Mongolian Red Cross Society (MRCS) invites qualified individuals and teams to apply for this study. Please submit the following documents to the Climate Change and Disaster Management Department at the following email addresses: • Please submit your application in English only. • Please include in your motivation letter (Detail the competencies outlined in this ToR) your availability and your current Pay Rate in MNT (including government taxes, daily expenses, per diem; travel costs, preferred payment method, etc) • In the same document as your CV/Resume (Include the CVs of all individuals who will be assigned to this study), please include the following: - Curriculum Vitae/Resume - Proposal overview: Include the following as a minimum: - Methodology - Workplan - Detailed • Portfolio: Please provide two references and at least one example of previous similar work or studies done on this subject is recommended. Submission Deadline: Proposals must be submitted by September 20, 2024. Selection Criteria: The selection will be based on, but not limited to, the following criteria: - Quality of the technical proposal - Financial proposal - Availability of the consultant Only qualified consultants will be contacted by the MRCS for the interview. For any inquiries or additional information, please contact or .